Population and society in twentieth-century Southeast Asia.

The historical demographic analysis in this article is a revision of a paper presented at the Conference of the Northwest Regional Consortium for Southeast Asian Studies in 1988 at the University of Oregon. The author takes the view that fertility has remained high in the Southeast Asian region due to the dynamics of colonialism and the reinforcement of traditional society. Industrialization, urbanization, and advancing education was not favored by colonial policy. The shift to planting cash crops was labor-intensive work which reinforced large families. The fertility decline after the 1960s is attributed to population pressure and the lower limits of land and production per family. Incentives for smaller families are identified as the expansion of mass education, increased consumer aspirations, and opportunities for modern sector employment. The impact of population growth is viewed as multidimensional and indicative of the conflicts between resources, obligations, and aspirations. The historical record in Southeast Asia reveals a population shortage and the risk of losing the minimum supply of labor necessary for a subsistence economy. Traditional local authorities were in need of men for waging war and producing an economic surplus. Colonial administrators imported cheap labor. As mortality declined and population increased, the societal response was migration, usually to frontier areas. New zones of wet rice production were created in lower Burma, central Siam, and Cochin China due to increased demand. Other survival strategies are identified as infinite land subdivision and multiple job holding in the off-season. Densely populated areas appeared to have lower fertility. Over the past 20 years the strategy appears to have been lower fertility coupled with acceptance of family planning, higher female educational attainment, and higher age at marriage. Southeast Asian patterns are considered indicative of the impact of wars, crises, and economic change on demographic processes and of the demographic impact of changes in population size, density, and structure on social, political, and economic outcomes.